Ecological Analysis of Spatiotemporal Patterns in Brain Tumor Incidence and Cellular Infrastructure Growth in the United States

Abstract

Background/Objectives: The widespread growth of wireless technologies has made ambient exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) ubiquitous. Previous studies have examined associations between mobile phone use and primary malignant brain tumor risk, yet the oncologic impact of ambient exposure remains unclear. Methods: We linked cellular infrastructure density from the OpenCelliD geodatabase to county-level brain tumor incidence in the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry across 884 counties covering 46% of the U.S. population. Deployment followed a sigmoid growth pattern with an inflection in 2016; we compared infrastructure density and incidence ratios from 2011–2015 to 2016–2020, adjusting for baseline rates. Legacy cell tower infrastructure and LTE were examined separately, with vestibular schwannoma as a negative control, confounder adjustment, repeated-measures panels, and age stratification. Results: Growth in infrastructure density correlated with growth in total primary malignant brain tumors (r = 0.19, p = 2.2 × 10−8, 95% CI 0.122 to 0.250) and glioblastoma (r = 0.14, p = 5.5 × 10−5, 95% CI 0.070 to 0.200). The total-tumor association persisted after regressing out glioblastoma, though the non-GBM component attenuated to non-significance after full confounder adjustment. Vestibular schwannoma showed no significant association. The GBM association was significant for legacy cell tower infrastructure (r = 0.104, p = 0.0024, 95% CI 0.037 to 0.170) but non-significant for LTE, persisted after confounder adjustment, and was significant only in adults aged 70 and older. The GSM definition was post hoc, and its association was model-dependent. In the first-difference (repeated-measures) analysis, GBM was not significantly associated with legacy cell tower infrastructure (coefficient = 0.014, p = 0.70, 95% CI −0.060 to 0.088), while the association with all towers did not reach statistical significance (coefficient = 0.13, p = 0.052, 95% CI −0.001 to 0.251). Conclusions: County-level growth of cellular infrastructure is modestly associated with primary malignant brain tumor incidence. The legacy association was significant only in adults aged 70 and older; LTE and vestibular schwannoma showed no significant association. These findings are hypothesis-generating; causation is not established.

AI evidence extraction

Main findings

County-level growth in cellular infrastructure density was modestly correlated with growth in primary malignant brain tumor and glioblastoma incidence. The glioblastoma association persisted after confounder adjustment for legacy infrastructure but was significant only among adults aged 70 and older; it was not significant for LTE or in the first-difference analysis of legacy infrastructure. Vestibular schwannoma showed no significant association, and causation was not established.

Outcomes measured

• Primary malignant brain tumor incidence
• Glioblastoma incidence
• Vestibular schwannoma incidence

Limitations

• Ecological, county-level analysis cannot establish individual exposure or causation.
• The GSM definition was post hoc, and its association was model-dependent.
• The legacy-infrastructure association with glioblastoma was not significant in the first-difference analysis.
• The analyzed counties covered 46% of the U.S. population.

{
    "study_type": "ecological",
    "exposure": {
        "band": "RF",
        "source": "Cellular infrastructure, including legacy cell towers and LTE",
        "frequency_mhz": null,
        "sar_wkg": null,
        "duration": null
    },
    "population": "U.S. counties covered by the SEER registry, representing 46% of the U.S. population",
    "sample_size": 884,
    "outcomes": [
        "Primary malignant brain tumor incidence",
        "Glioblastoma incidence",
        "Vestibular schwannoma incidence"
    ],
    "main_findings": "County-level growth in cellular infrastructure density was modestly correlated with growth in primary malignant brain tumor and glioblastoma incidence. The glioblastoma association persisted after confounder adjustment for legacy infrastructure but was significant only among adults aged 70 and older; it was not significant for LTE or in the first-difference analysis of legacy infrastructure. Vestibular schwannoma showed no significant association, and causation was not established.",
    "effect_direction": "mixed",
    "limitations": [
        "Ecological, county-level analysis cannot establish individual exposure or causation.",
        "The GSM definition was post hoc, and its association was model-dependent.",
        "The legacy-infrastructure association with glioblastoma was not significant in the first-difference analysis.",
        "The analyzed counties covered 46% of the U.S. population."
    ],
    "evidence_strength": "very_low",
    "confidence": 0.9699999999999999733546474089962430298328399658203125,
    "peer_reviewed_likely": "yes",
    "keywords": [
        "radiofrequency electromagnetic fields",
        "cellular infrastructure",
        "cell towers",
        "LTE",
        "brain tumors",
        "glioblastoma",
        "vestibular schwannoma",
        "ecological study",
        "SEER"
    ],
    "suggested_hubs": []
}

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