Simulation of incidence of malignant brain tumors in birth cohorts that started using mobile phones when they first became popular in Japan
Abstract
Simulation of incidence of malignant brain tumors in birth cohorts that started using mobile phones when they first became popular in Japan Sato Y, Kojimahara N, Yamaguchi N. Simulation of the incidence of malignant brain tumors in birth cohorts that started using mobile phones when they first became popular in Japan. Bioelectromagnetics. 2019 Mar 15. doi: 10.1002/bem.22176. Abstract Over 20 years have passed since the initial spread of mobile phones in Japan. Epidemiological studies of mobile phone use are currently being conducted around the world, but scientific evidence is inconclusive. The present study aimed to simulate the incidence of malignant brain tumors in cohorts that began using mobile phones when they first became popular in Japan. Mobile phone ownership data were collected through an Internet- based questionnaire survey of subjects born between 1960 and 1989. The proportion of mobile phone ownership between 1990 and 2012 was calculated by birth cohort (1960s, 1970s, and 1980s). Subsequently, using the ownership proportion, the incidence of malignant brain tumors was calculated under simulated risk conditions. When the relative risk was set to 1.4 for 1,640 h or more of cumulative mobile phone use and the mean daily call duration was 15 min, the incidence of malignant brain tumors in 2020 was 5.48 per 100,000 population for the 1960s birth cohort, 3.16 for the 1970s birth cohort, and 2.29 for the 1980s birth cohort. Under the modeled scenarios, an increase in the incidence of malignant brain tumors was shown to be observed around 2020. Conclusion Epidemiological studies on mobile phone use have mainly focused on malignant brain tumors as a health outcome. The present study revealed that under the modeled scenarios, an increase in the incidence of malignant brain tumors was shown to be observed around 2020. In future epidemiological studies on mobile phone use, we believe that it will be necessary to investigate whether or not the incidence of malignant brain tumors is actually increased in 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s birth cohorts. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
AI evidence extraction
Main findings
Using mobile phone ownership proportions by birth cohort and simulated risk assumptions (e.g., relative risk 1.4 for ≥1,640 hours cumulative use with 15 minutes/day calling), the model projected malignant brain tumor incidence in 2020 of 5.48 per 100,000 (1960s cohort), 3.16 (1970s), and 2.29 (1980s). The authors state that under the modeled scenarios, an increase in incidence would be observed around 2020 and suggest future epidemiological studies to assess whether such increases occur.
Outcomes measured
- Incidence of malignant brain tumors (simulated; per 100,000 population)
Limitations
- Simulation/modeling study rather than observed incidence analysis
- Risk assumptions (e.g., relative risk value, call duration, cumulative use threshold) are scenario-dependent
- Mobile phone ownership data collected via an internet-based questionnaire survey; sample size and representativeness not reported in abstract
- Exposure metric based on ownership and assumed calling patterns rather than measured RF exposure or verified usage
- Abstract notes existing epidemiological evidence is inconclusive
Suggested hubs
-
cell-phones
(0.95) Focuses on mobile phone use/ownership and modeled brain tumor incidence.
View raw extracted JSON
{
"publication_year": 2019,
"study_type": "other",
"exposure": {
"band": "RF",
"source": "mobile phone",
"frequency_mhz": null,
"sar_wkg": null,
"duration": "Simulated cumulative use threshold of ≥1,640 hours; assumed mean daily call duration 15 minutes"
},
"population": "Japanese birth cohorts (born 1960–1989) surveyed for mobile phone ownership; simulation of malignant brain tumor incidence by cohort",
"sample_size": null,
"outcomes": [
"Incidence of malignant brain tumors (simulated; per 100,000 population)"
],
"main_findings": "Using mobile phone ownership proportions by birth cohort and simulated risk assumptions (e.g., relative risk 1.4 for ≥1,640 hours cumulative use with 15 minutes/day calling), the model projected malignant brain tumor incidence in 2020 of 5.48 per 100,000 (1960s cohort), 3.16 (1970s), and 2.29 (1980s). The authors state that under the modeled scenarios, an increase in incidence would be observed around 2020 and suggest future epidemiological studies to assess whether such increases occur.",
"effect_direction": "harm",
"limitations": [
"Simulation/modeling study rather than observed incidence analysis",
"Risk assumptions (e.g., relative risk value, call duration, cumulative use threshold) are scenario-dependent",
"Mobile phone ownership data collected via an internet-based questionnaire survey; sample size and representativeness not reported in abstract",
"Exposure metric based on ownership and assumed calling patterns rather than measured RF exposure or verified usage",
"Abstract notes existing epidemiological evidence is inconclusive"
],
"evidence_strength": "low",
"confidence": 0.7399999999999999911182158029987476766109466552734375,
"peer_reviewed_likely": "yes",
"stance": "concern",
"stance_confidence": 0.66000000000000003108624468950438313186168670654296875,
"summary": "This study modeled malignant brain tumor incidence in Japanese birth cohorts based on mobile phone ownership patterns and assumed risk scenarios. Under an example scenario (relative risk 1.4 for ≥1,640 hours cumulative use with 15 minutes/day calling), the simulation projected higher incidence around 2020, varying by cohort. The authors conclude that future epidemiological studies should test whether malignant brain tumor incidence actually increased in these cohorts.",
"key_points": [
"The study is a simulation using mobile phone ownership proportions by birth cohort in Japan from 1990–2012.",
"Ownership data were collected via an internet-based questionnaire survey of people born 1960–1989.",
"The model applied assumed risk conditions, including a scenario with relative risk 1.4 for ≥1,640 hours cumulative use and 15 minutes/day calling.",
"Projected 2020 incidence under that scenario was 5.48 per 100,000 (1960s cohort), 3.16 (1970s), and 2.29 (1980s).",
"The authors report that, under modeled scenarios, an increase in malignant brain tumor incidence would be observed around 2020.",
"They emphasize the need for future epidemiological studies to verify whether incidence actually increased in these cohorts."
],
"categories": [
"RF EMF",
"Mobile Phones",
"Cancer",
"Epidemiology",
"Modeling/Simulation"
],
"tags": [
"Birth Cohorts",
"Brain Tumors",
"Cancer Incidence",
"Cohort Modeling",
"Cumulative Call Time",
"Epidemiology",
"Internet Survey",
"Japan",
"Malignant Brain Tumors",
"Mobile Phone Ownership",
"Mobile Phones",
"Risk Simulation"
],
"keywords": [
"simulation",
"incidence",
"malignant brain tumors",
"birth cohort",
"mobile phone ownership",
"Japan",
"relative risk",
"cumulative use",
"call duration"
],
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{
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"weight": 0.9499999999999999555910790149937383830547332763671875,
"reason": "Focuses on mobile phone use/ownership and modeled brain tumor incidence."
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"social": {
"tweet": "Modeling study (Japan) used mobile phone ownership by birth cohort and assumed risk scenarios; under one scenario (RR 1.4 for ≥1,640 h use), it projected higher malignant brain tumor incidence around 2020 and calls for epidemiologic verification.",
"facebook": "A Bioelectromagnetics modeling study simulated malignant brain tumor incidence in Japanese birth cohorts using mobile phone ownership data and assumed risk scenarios. Under one scenario (RR 1.4 for ≥1,640 hours cumulative use), the model projected increased incidence around 2020 and recommends future studies to test whether such increases occurred.",
"linkedin": "This Bioelectromagnetics paper modeled malignant brain tumor incidence in Japanese birth cohorts based on mobile phone ownership patterns and assumed risk scenarios. Under an example scenario (RR 1.4 for ≥1,640 hours cumulative use), the simulation projected increased incidence around 2020 and highlights the need for epidemiological studies to confirm observed trends."
}
}
AI can be wrong. Always verify against the paper.
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